As a statistician, I appreciate the quote by applied statistics pioneer W. Edwards Deming, “In God we trust. All others bring data.” But as a social scientist, I’m compelled to warn you that many decision-makers chase data with too much zeal, running from ignorance but never improving their decisions. Is there a way to land in the sweet spot? There is, and it starts with one simple decision-making habit: Commit to your default decision up front.
The First Thing Great Decision Makers Do
If you look at data first, you’re doing it wrong.
June 25, 2019
Summary.
Good decision-making starts with one simple habit: Commit to your default decision up front. You’ll choose it by making a judgment call about which action is the lesser evil under ignorance. Choosing a default action is difficult for decision-makers who aren’t used to it. You ask yourself, “If I see no additional data beyond what I’ve already seen, what will I do?” Answering this takes strength of character — you can’t punt it to the data. You really have to think about the business problem and answer truthfully, “What am I going to pick if I have to make the decision right now?”
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Practical ways to improve your decision-making process.
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New!
HBR Learning
Decision Making Course
Accelerate your career with Harvard ManageMentor®. HBR Learning’s online leadership training helps you hone your skills with courses like Decision Making. Earn badges to share on LinkedIn and your resume. Access more than 40 courses trusted by Fortune 500 companies.
Practical ways to improve your decision-making process.