“To be wise you must arrange your experiences on a lattice of models.”
Why “Many-Model Thinkers” Make Better Decisions
Organizations are awash in data — from geocoded transactional data to real-time website traffic to semantic quantifications of corporate annual reports. All these data and data sources only add value if put to use. And that typically means that the data is incorporated into a model. The most sophisticated organizations — from Alphabet to Berkshire Hathaway to the CIA — all use models. In fact, they do something even better: they use many models in combination. But creating an “ensemble” of models isn’t just about picking the ones that perform best on their own. You want to combine models that complement one another. Three rules can help you construct your own powerful ensemble of models: spread attention broadly, boost predictions, and seek conflict.